How to Adjust Your Offer Based on Days on Market (DOM) Trends

In real estate, timing isn’t everything… but it’s close.

And when you're evaluating a flip opportunity, one of the fastest ways to gauge the seller's urgency and your own leverage is by looking at Days on Market (DOM).

Yet most flippers don’t use DOM correctly.

They either:

• Ignore it entirely

• Assume high DOM means a desperate seller (not always true)

• Use it to justify lowballing without context (which backfires)

In this article, you’ll learn how to read DOM like a pro, spot trends at the neighborhood level, and adjust your offer strategy based on what DOM reveals about the market, the seller, and the deal itself.

What Is DOM, and Why It Matters

DOM (Days on Market) is the number of days a property listing has been active on the MLS without going under contract.

But there’s nuance:

• Active DOM: From list date to contract

• Cumulative DOM (CDOM): Includes previous listings (resets only if the listing is withdrawn for a set time)

High DOM can mean:

• Overpriced listing

• Poor condition

• Bad marketing

• Lack of buyer interest

• Or simply a slow market

Low DOM can mean:

• Priced aggressively

• High buyer demand

• Hot neighborhood

• Or listing manipulation (price dropped right before re-listing)

Your job as a flipper: Know why the DOM is what it is, and what it means for your entry, exit, and margin.

DOM Trends Reflect Market Conditions (Not Just Property Problems)

Let’s say you’re looking at a 3-bed, 2-bath in a C-class neighborhood.

If it’s been sitting for 52 days, that might seem bad…

But if the average DOM in that zip is 61, it’s actually ahead of pace.

Now flip it:

If a property’s been sitting 21 days, but the average DOM is 5, that means the market is hot, and something’s wrong with this house.

In short:

• DOM ≠ Seller desperation by default

• DOM = Market signal + Seller signal + Listing signal

Use DOM in context, not isolation.

Step 1: Research Local DOM Benchmarks

Before adjusting your offer based on a single property’s DOM, you need to know what’s normal in that area.

Here’s how to do it:

Use PropStream, MLS, or Redfin Data

Look at:

• Median DOM for that zip code (last 3–6 months)

• DOM trends (rising, stable, or falling)

• Price tier DOM (DOM for $150K homes vs. $300K homes)

• DOM by property type (single-family, condo, townhome)

• DOM by rehab status (as-is vs. renovated)

Set Benchmarks

Create a simple DOM matrix:

Use this table to calibrate your expectations before running numbers.

Step 2: Know the 3 Ways DOM Affects Your Offer

1. Leverage on Purchase Price

If the DOM is high relative to market averages, the seller may be:

• Open to lower offers

• Facing holding costs

• Ready to negotiate

If the DOM is low and the market is fast, you may need to:

• Offer closer to asking

• Remove contingencies

• Move quickly to lock it in

Rule of thumb:

• DOM > 45 in a hot market? Justify your offer with facts

• DOM < 10? Prepare for competition, price isn’t your only weapon

2. Risk Adjustment for Your Exit Timeline

Let’s say you’re planning a 90-day flip.

If DOM is rising, and average resale DOM is now 45+, your exit might take 30–45 days longer than projected.

Longer DOM = longer holding costs
Longer DOM = increased market risk
Longer DOM = thinner profit margin

Adjust your projected exit window accordingly.

If your original pro forma had:

• 90 days rehab

• 15 days listing

• 10 days under contract

• 15 days to close

You’re expecting 130 days from purchase to resale.

But if DOM trends show 45–60 days on market for similar flips, add 30 days buffer, and raise your contingency reserve.

3. Indicator of Seller Pain or Stubbornness

DOM can help you read the seller.

• DOM = 0–7? Seller expects strong offers

• DOM = 15–30? Seller may be wondering why it hasn’t sold

• DOM = 45–60? Seller may have mentally lowered price already

• DOM = 90+? Seller is frustrated, but may also be emotionally stuck

If the price hasn’t changed after 60+ days, you may be dealing with a delusional seller, not a motivated one.

Use DOM as a filter to avoid wasting time on listings that won’t go anywhere.

Step 3: Adjust Your Offer Strategy Accordingly

Here’s how to incorporate DOM into your actual offer strategy, with some examples.

Property A: DOM = 5, Market Avg = 8

• Slightly below average

• Decent photos, updated

• Priced right

Offer approach:

• Offer close to asking if numbers work

• Use speed and certainty as your edge

• Include proof of funds and a quick close timeline

Property B: DOM = 41, Market Avg = 19

• More than double the average

• No price drops yet

• Vacant property

Offer approach:

• Anchor low (explain DOM vs. market avg)

• Highlight holding costs to the seller

• Provide a repair estimate to justify the price

• Offer a flexible close to sweeten the deal

Property C: DOM = 77, Market Avg = 55

• Aging listing

• Already had one price drop

• Still overpriced

Offer approach:

• Only offer if numbers justify a deep discount

• Use comps + DOM trends to show overpricing

• Mention days since last showing (ask agent)

• Suggest seller “may be better off wholesaling to you”

DOM Paired with Price Drops = Motivation

If DOM is high and price has dropped once or twice, that’s a strong signal:

• Seller is paying attention

• Seller is listening to the market

• Seller may be nearing their pain point

Watch for patterns like:

• 10% drop at day 30

• Another 5% drop at day 60

• Now sitting at day 75 with no offers

This is your window.

Come in with a “clean offer” slightly below the list, and justify using:

• DOM vs. market

• Price drop history

• Estimated repair cost

• ARV trend (show prices are falling)

Sellers hate uncertainty, and you can offer clarity and speed, which is often worth more than a few thousand bucks.

DOM Signals for Off-Market Leads

Even when you're targeting off-market sellers, DOM trends help you:

• Spot neighborhoods where properties sit longer (more distress)

• Avoid targeting areas with fast DOM unless you're aggressive

• Adjust marketing language ("I specialize in helping homes that haven’t sold...")

Example:

If you’re driving for dollars in a neighborhood where the median DOM is 78, you can say:

“Looks like houses in this area are taking a while to move. If you’re thinking about selling but want a faster option without listing, that’s what I do.”

You're using market data as marketing ammo.

Bonus: DOM Trend vs. DOM Snapshot

DOM is helpful, but DOM trend is better.

Ask:

• Is DOM rising month over month?

• Are DOM trends seasonal or structural?

• Are flips sitting longer than move-in ready homes?

You can find this in:

• Redfin Data Center

• Realtor.com Market Trends

• MLS reports

• PropStream’s neighborhood charts

If DOM is rising, that may be:

• A sign the market is softening

• A warning to adjust your exit pricing

• A green light to lower your entry offer

But if DOM is falling, your competition just increased, and the seller may be feeling it too.

DOM as a Flipper’s Safety Net

Here’s how to use DOM to reduce risk:

• If DOM is rising → build more buffer into holding costs

• If DOM is high → offer lower or request seller credit

• If DOM is low → move quickly or risk losing the deal

• If DOM is stagnant → know you're entering a riskier flip market

Remember: profit happens at the purchase, and DOM helps you see if you're buying into strength or softness.

Final Tips for Using DOM Like a Pro

• Always compare property DOM vs. neighborhood DOM

• Use DOM in tandem with price per square foot trends

• Don’t confuse “motivated” with “stubborn”, DOM reveals both

• Use DOM to build rapport with sellers: “Has it been tough getting interest?”

• Make DOM part of your offer justification script: “Homes in this area are sitting 45+ days, that adds risk on our end, which we priced in.”

DOM Isn’t Just a Number, It’s a Negotiation Tool

If you know how to read DOM, you’ll be ahead of 90% of your competition.

You’ll:

• Know when to push

• Know when to back off

• Spot desperation vs. delusion

• Protect your flip margins

• And make smarter offers that actually close

Because at the end of the day, DOM tells a story, and the best investors know how to read between the lines.